Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research

Science Serving Coastal Communities

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You are here: Home › EcoForecasting Program

CSCOR is committed to providing decision makers with high-quality scientific information and predictive tools that provide the underpinnings for ecosystem-based management in coastal regions. The development of ecological forecasts (i.e., the capability to predict the effects and interactions of environmental variability and anthropogenic stressors on coastal ecosystems, and the impacts of management actions on ecosystems and coastal economies) has been the driving force behind CSCOR's and COP's ecosystem research for well over a decade. In much the same way a weather forecast or economic forecast can help society plan for future contingencies, an ecological forecasting capability is necessary for environmental managers to make informed decisions regarding alternative management scenarios. Ecological forecasts can lead to better decision-making, better communication between scientists and managers, and help to set science priorities for the future. More

Current Projects

• Data Synthesis, Model Comparisons, and a Risk-Based Decision Support System for Managing Coastal Systems Exposed to Multiple Stressors (Fiscal Year 03-04)
• Climate Change and Intertidal Risk Analysis: Forecasting the effects of climate change on the biogeography of foundation species in estuarine and rocky intertidal ecosystems (Fiscal Year 04-08)
• Development of an operational model for predicting the near real-time distribution and abundance of the scyphomedusae Chrysaora quinquecirra in Chesapeake Bay (Fiscal Year 04-06)
• Forecasting the causes, consequences and potential solutions for hypoxia in Lake Erie (Fiscal Year 08-011)

For more information on ecological forecasting in other CSCOR programs, click here.

Past Projects

• Impact of Transport Processes on Lobster Fishery Patterns (Fiscal Year 02-03)
• Synthesizing Seagrass Models: Application to Ecological Forecasts (Fiscal Year 02-03)
• Ecosystem Variability and Estuarine Fishes: A Synthesis (Fiscal Year 02-03)
• Climate-Based Forecasts of the Gulf of Maine Ecosystem (Fiscal Year 02-03)
• Southeast Bering Sea Carrying Capacity (Fiscal Year 96-Fiscal Year 02)
• Coastal Remote Sensing Science
• Steller Sea Lion Research
• Coastal Forecast Systems: Great Lakes | California

Related News

• CSCOR-sponsors Upcoming Science Seminar: In Search of the Holy Grail: Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay (May, 2007)
• CSCOR Research Results in Ecological Forecast of Sea Nettle Occurrence, Contributes to Multi-species Management Efforts in the Chesapeake Bay (January, 2007)
• Improved Reliability of Ecological Forecasts to Advance Decisionmaking of Resource Managers (July, 2006)
• NOAA Funded Researchers Forecast Toxic Red Tide in New England; Show Value of Ocean Observing System Technology (July, 2004)
• NOAA, Louisiana Scientists Issue "Dead Zone" Forecast (July, 2004)

NOAA Press Releases

• 10/30/06 — U.S. Commerce Deputy Secretary Announced $2.5 Million to University of Michigan to Develop Forecasting for "Dead Zones" in Lake Erie
• 10/06/04 — NOAA Issues First Installment Of $2.5 Million Grant to University Of South Carolina Research Foundation to Study Coastal Ecosystems And Climate Variability
• 10/06/04 — NOAA Awards $90,000 to Yale University to Predict Jellyfish Blooms in Chesapeake Bay

More News

Workshops & Meetings

• Cafe conversation session on NOAA ecosystem modeling priorities at Coastal Zone 07: CSCOR staff has led a project within the National Ocean Service to prioritize modeling activities based on user needs (link to report). A cafe conversation session at Coastal Zone 07 was held to solicit feedback on user needs related to modeling, and resulted in a short response (link to feedback document)

• Modeling Related to the Regional Observing System in the Gulf of Maine

• Gulf of Maine Workshop Report-Management and scientific informational needs for harmful algal bloom and fisheries forecasting in the Gulf of Maine: A framework for moving toward an operational capability (PDF)

Related Links

• Ecological Forecasting: New Tools for Coastal and Marine Ecosystem Management (PDF)
• NOS Ecological Forecasting Page
• NCCOS Ecological Forecasting Page